The proposed Muslim running mates will not add much value to Tinubu’s candidacy. Even if anyone of them would help the candidacy, it wouldn’t balance the damage it could incur in the North Central, South-South and even Southwest as we have seen. Take a look at the proposed candidates
Most at times people tend to approach political issues with the simplified conception of reality, such that every problem is addressed with its “opposite”. Whereas in natural laws, entities are thought to exert the same, but opposite, effect on their opposites, as theorized in Newton’s Third Law of Motion, political issues deviate from such trajectory. As the syndicate writer Ringim once put it, “political actions exert unequal and disproportionate reactions”. Even in nature, certain entities affect a reaction such as presence of catalysts, medium of reaction and environment (e.g. temperature, pressure, humidity etc.)
I have discussed Tinubu’s dilemma over picking a running mate, and why choosing a Northern Christian might not favour him garner the required votes in the North since he has only Southwest and would need much vote from the North to win. In identification with the problem, Northern governors have been pushing for a Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Here are the reasons why a Muslim-Muslim ticket is inviable.
The political environment is currently underlain with suppressed religious tensions. The Deborah incident and recent killings of worshippers in Owo, Ondo state have aggravated institutional mistrust among the Christian minority. The Nigerian Christian community will reject a Muslim-Muslim ticket with ardent skepticism and fear. It will rather root for a candidacy where it will be represented, thereby increasing the sense of confidence and security.
A Muslim-Muslim ticket will create division in the unified Yorubas front, and hence, weaken Tinubu’s stronghold. The Yorubas have been united due to tolerance and fairness in the pursuit of common goals. It is because of synchrony of political interests with religious and cultural ones that the Yorubas have been able to move along. This single act of picking a Muslim running mate, which would appear as an act of political desperation, might loosen the bond. The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) will reject the decision, and the body has a heavy Yoruba representation.
Those that think the Muslim-Muslim ticket will work make reference to the Abiola-Kingibe ticket, forgetting that Nigeria has changed over the past thirty years. Society is not static. What worked in 1993 might not work in 2023. There was less of institutional mistrust then as there is today. Not only that, Abiola was able to present himself as a philanthropist whose charity had reached the needy across Nigeria. His service to Islam also played role in neutralizing all sentiments. In fact, he won Kano state, his opponent Late Alh. Bashir Tofa’s home state.
Tinubu, in contrast, does not have the popularity Abiola had in the North. He doesn’t have the national picture Abiola had. He’s not seen as a nationalist leader like Abiola. Tinubu is viewed as an aspirant who depends on governors’ shoulders to deliver him after a failed APC mandate. He’s not popular with the masses, and the masses will decide, thanks to digitization of the voting system.
The proposed Muslim running mates will not add much value to Tinubu’s candidacy. Even if anyone of them would help the candidacy, it wouldn’t balance the damage it could incur in the North Central, South-South and even Southwest as we have seen. Take a look at the proposed candidates.
Nasir El-Rufa’i and Abdullahi Ganduje from the Northwest. These are governors that had championed capital projects and infrastructure in their states. However, they both lack popular support. They narrowly won their second term bid.
Picking Ganduje as running mate wouldn’t change the game in any way. With or without Ganduje as running mate, APC won’t win Kano state due to Kwankwaso’s candidacy. El-Rufa’i might work hard to canvass in Kaduna, however, how does he contribute outside his state? Both of them are not good options.
Picking Kashim Shettima or Zulum from the Northeast wouldn’t give the expected outcome. APC will still only deliver Borno and Yobe states in the Northeast. Zulum is popular, but will his aura work in Northwest? Will people in the insurgency-ridden states of Zamfara and Katsina vote for APC because of Zulum? Will the choice change the votes in Kano? Not even to talk of Northcentral that will cry out of marginalization. Neither in South-South nor Southeast.
Muslim-Muslim ticket is therefore, a stirring of the sea to catch more fish. It might not achieve the intended effect. The fish might move away from the direction of the net. With the current political tensions, it will only aggravate institutional mistrust, raising the fears and doubts of the Middle Belt, the South-South and even Southwest, without achieving the intended effect in the North. Such a decision will generate protest votes which will most likely go to the People’s Democratic Party. The Labour Party and NNPP wouldn’t be a good option in such situation as they lack national structure. Instead of allowing APC to win, the aggrieved will rather go with the PDP.
The best decision will be for Tinubu to choose a Christian running mate to maintain confidence and trust which breaching thereof would cause unimaginable political damage. He can then go on and mobilize victory. Otherwise, the APC will drown in the turmoil of a Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Aliyu Danladi
