As Nigerians go to the polls on Saturday, 25th February, 2023 to elect the country’s next president, there are ominous parallels to the 1993 presidential election with regards to Bola Ahmed Tinubu and MKO Abiola.
Both politicians are Muslims, both stupendously rich and both political kingmakers who later wanted to be king. Although their entry into politics was in divergent circumstances – Abiola ‘s populism as a philanthropist business mogul who captured public imagination while Tinubu’s was as a strategic technocrat, who acquired a reputation as a talent hunter. Both had trained as accountants. There is the notion that both have wealth-induced arrogance and irreverence.
Both also adopted the strategy of demystifying a legend of their race , Chief Obafemi Awolowo, which attracted intense outrage from the generality of Yoruba people. Abiola was reputed to have been privy to coups which brought military regimes into power. He drew resentment of top military officers by his condescending remarks . Tinubu was also the kingmaker who brought the Buhari presidency into being. Like Abiola, Tinubu had a sense of entitlement to succeed the government he helped to elect. As in the case of Abiola, Tinubu also felt entitled to succeed the Buhari presidency. As in 1993 and 2023, the scenario was of incumbent beneficiary government unenthusiastic to handover to its benefactor. Military President, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, engaged in banning and unbanning presidential candidates until he boxed himself into a cul de sac and had to take unceremonious exit. In 2023, President Buhari had wanted to be given a free hand to nominate his successor, who apparently would not have been Tinubu, but for the opposition of some APC governors. Tinubu had to force a showdown with his Emilokan Declaration. There are those who viewed that Tinubu will face consequences for his temerity, including the APC party chairman, Abdulahi Adamu.
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Abiola succeeded in becoming the presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the 1993 election and went on to a landslide defeat of Alhaji Tofa, the presidential candidate of the National Republicanj Party (NRC). That was where the good news ended as the result of the election was never officially declared and subsequently annulled. Even in the last week to Saturday’s election, Tinubu was still in battle with his own party, of which he carries the title ‘ National Leader’ accusing it of seeming sabotage of his presidential election success. It is a manifestation of deep shicm within the party. If in spite of this deep discord, Tinubu romps to victory at Saturday’s election, can he avoid the Abiola denouement?
Bisi Olawunmi
