With the annulment of the June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Election and the consequent fresh militarization of the Nigerian politics, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu became a founding member of the famous pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) which, for several years, engaged the military for the very soul of Nigeria.
After intrigues and hullabaloo, the national convention of political parties has come and gone. Interestingly, both the ruling party (APC), and opposition PDP have settled for Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar respectively as their flag bearers. They will slug it out with others candidates on 25 February, 2023 presidential elections. But, Beyond the forthcoming elections, Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu are friends and Political associates. Tinubu once stated, “It was Atiku who encouraged him to venture into politics. Politically speaking, the two strong contenders are long time associates who have many things in common. Both Atiku Abubakar and Tinubu are disciplines of late Shehu Musa Yar’Adua who In 1987 formed people Democracy movement (PDM) “to be the conscience and voice of the masses. They are also members of defunct social Democracy Party (SDP). However, For more informed analysis, let us peep into their Political struggles.
Atiku Abubakar ran for Nigeria presidential office under Social Democratic Party in 1992. Eventually, he came third in the convention primaries, losing to MKO Abiola and Babagana Kinigbe. On December 20, 2006, Action Congress (AC) selected Atiku as their presidential candidate. Thereafter, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) omitted Atiku’s name in the final list of 24 aspirants for the April 21 Presidential election. Apparently, his name was omitted because a panel set up by the government listed him among corrupt persons in Nigeria. However, Abubakar challenged the action in court on March 16. At the long run, the supreme court ruled in his favour and he was able to contest. After the election, Atiku came third, behind Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, PDP candidate and Muhammadu Buhari, ANPP candidate. He also contested for president during the 2011 elections. This time, under the PDP. However, he lost at the primaries to President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. In 2018, Atiku announced his interest to contest as Nigeria President under PDP. He won the party’s nomination on October 7 at its convention. He also defeated other contestants with 1,532 votes, leading the Governor of Sokoto state Aminu Tambuwal by 839 votes. Unfortunately, he lost to President Buhari on February 27, 2019. Tinubu first foray into active politics was as a founding member of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP). In 1992, he was elected as an Honourable Senator of the Federal Republic Nigeria to represent Lagos West Senatorial District.
With the annulment of the June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Election and the consequent fresh militarization of the Nigerian politics, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu became a founding member of the famous pro-democracy group, the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) which, for several years, engaged the military for the very soul of Nigeria. Subsequently, Bola Tinubu suffered many arrests and detention, harassments and constant threats to his life forcing him to flee Nigeria for his personal safety. He, however, did not give up the struggle as he joined NADECO abroad to continue the agitation for a restoration of democratic governance and the rule in the country.
In 1998, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu returned to Nigeria to heed a call for all Nigerians to join in the National Reconciliation and Development. A year later, he was elected Executive Governor of Lagos State on the platform of the Alliance for Democracy (AD). His sterling performances in infrastructural development and dramatic improvement of revenue generation of Lagos State spoke volumes about him.
The questions in the lips of many Nigerians begging for answers are: how the 2023 elections can be won and lost between Tinubu and Atiku? It is unarguably to say, both the duo have formidable Political structures. Little wonder, as an old termers, during the just concluded parties’ convention, they won their tickets against all odds. Though, PDP in a bid to return to power after eight years vacation threw its presidential contest open, the ruling party zone the position to South after pressure and support from northern’ APC governors. With Peter Obi dumped the PDP and pitched his tent with labour party, Atiku Abubakar running mate is likely to come from South-South. For APC, where to pick the Tinubu’s running mate has remained a torn in their flesh. Ideally, Tinubu as a Yoruba Muslim from South should shop his running mate from north. The running mate is supposed to be a Christian in other to balance the power. If Tinubu opts for northern Christian, he will swing the northern Christians votes in Kaduna, plateau, Niger, Benue, Nasarawa, Kogi and even Taraba and Adamawa states. The highest elected seat the Christians minority from north ever attended was speakership. But, how will the northern Muslim majority voting pattern be with Atiku Abubakar in the race? Despite the fact, both the two dominant parties have fielded Muslim as their candidates, the 2023 general elections will be shaped along north versus south divide and on the alter of vice president position. At the end of the elections the pendulum will swing either in favour of Atiku or Tinubu, unless strong third force emerged through strong Political alliance.
Ibrahim Mustapha Pambegua
